Figures from IDC suggest the global smartphone market is experiencing its strongest year since 2015. According to the analyst firm’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, shipments of smartphones are forecast to reach 1.38 billion units in 2021, an increase of 7.7% over 2020.
The upswing in sales is expected to continue into 2022, when year-on-year growth will be 3.8%, with shipments totalling 1.43 billion units.
"Smartphones are seeing competition for consumer spending from adjacent markets like PCs, tablets, TVs, and smart home devices, yet that hasn't slowed the market's path to recovery," said Ryan Reith, program vice president with IDC's Worldwide Mobile Device Trackers.
"The smartphone market returned to growth during the holiday quarter last year and since then we've only seen production from top suppliers ramp up. There continues to be a strong supply-side push toward 5G, and price points continue to drop as a result. IDC expects average selling prices (ASPs) for 5G Android devices to drop 12% year-over-year in 2021 to US$456 and then below US$400 in 2022. Apple will continue to feel price pressure."
IDC predicts that 5G phone shipments will grow by nearly 130% in 2021, and almost all region’s outside China will see triple-digit growth by the end of the year.
However, in terms of market share, China will lead the way with nearly 50% share of 5G shipments in 2021. The US will follow with a 16% share.
Other significant markets such as Western Europe and Asia/Pacific – excluding China and Japan – will combine for a 23.1% share of the worldwide 5G market by the end of 2021.
In emerging markets there is strong demand for mid-range and low-end 4G phones following the pandemic related slowdown.
"Although the 7.7% growth will feel like an impressive market turnaround, we must keep in mind that we are rebounding from one of the most challenging years on record," said Anthony Scarsella, research manager with IDC's Worldwide Mobile Device Trackers.
"2021 will represent the largest year-over-year growth the market has witnessed since 2015, as the shift towards 5G across all price tiers continues to accelerate. The 5G shift will also deliver peak smartphone ASPs in 2021 (US$376, up 9.7% year over year) when compared to the remainder of the forecast period as costly 5G devices continue to replace LTE devices, which are also starting to drop in price, down 27% in 2021."
